Quarantine, Contact Tracing, and Testing: Implications of an Augmented SEIR Model

I incorporate quarantine, contact tracing, and random testing in the basic SEIR model of infectious disease diffusion. A version that is calibrated to known characteristics spread COVID-19 used estimate transmission rate United States 2020. The then decomposed into a part reflects observable changes employment social contacts, residual component properties all other factors affect disease. construct counterfactuals for an alternative path avoids sharp decline second quarter 2020, but also results higher cumulative deaths due rate. For simulations modest permanent increase quarantine effectiveness counteracts deaths, introduction tracing further reduces although at diminishing Using conservative assumption on statistical value life, improved health outcomes from policies far outweighs economic gains terms increased output potential fiscal costs these policies. © 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston 2021.